What does a new Labour Prime Minister mean for the voluntary sector?

Only just under two years ago, Sir Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to a massive General Election win. On 21 June, he announced he would step down. Just over a week later, Starmer’s likely successor, Andy Burnham, set out his vision for the country, having only just been sworn in as an MP again following a resounding by-election win. As they say, a week is a long time in politics. 

Potential implications of Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham was first elected to Parliament in 1997 and served as a Treasury Minister, Culture Secretary, and Health Secretary in the Labour governments led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. He has a good understanding of the voluntary sector and its value. His work as Mayor of Greater Manchester suggests that has continued and developed in recent years. 

In a speech in Manchester on 29 June, Burnham talked about his project to radically decentralise the UK, devolving power and opportunity to the local level ‘in every postcode’. This would be symbolised by a ‘Number 10 of the North’, based in Manchester (where else?), charged with forcing Whitehall departments to devolve power and funding to local areas. Doing so, he argued, would unlock ‘good growth from the bottom up’. 

He also gave an indication of some of his other priorities: helping people with the cost-of-living crisis, ‘making the basics affordable’ by boosting public control of key utilities, more council housing, a focus on vocational and technical education, and better support for local government. Notably absent from the speech was anything on defence or foreign policy. 

Woven through Burnham’s speech was the message that he is determined to change the Westminster culture of ‘point-scoring’ politics, to get parties to find consensus. And beyond that, getting ‘all sectors’ to pull together, including charities, faith groups and voluntary organisations. Under an Andy Burnham premiership, charities and social enterprises could see a renewed emphasis on partnership working and place-based policymaking. 

Unless another Labour MP opposes Burnham in a contest for leadership of the Labour Party, he will become the new Prime Minister by 17 July. In theory any new Prime Minister will still be bound by Labour’s 2024 General Election manifesto. In his speech, Burnham stated that he would stick to that manifesto and the existing ‘fiscal rules’ about public spending.  

Road map for the months ahead 

So much is still speculative at this point, and there are fresh developments daily. Below we’ve mapped out the likely timeline and milestones to help charities and trustees to plan for the next few months: 

• By election victory – on 18 June Andy Burnham won 55% of the vote in the Ashton-in-Makerfield by election, and was sworn in as an MP on 22 June. Potential leadership rivals such as Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary, quickly pledged their support. 
• Keir Starmer resignation – on 21 June Keir Starmer announced his resignation in an address to the country. 
• Labour Party leadership contest – Candidates for party leader need to get the support of 81 other MPs to be considered. Nominations will take place from 9 – 16 July. If there is a contest between more than one candidate, it will run until 29 August; otherwise, there will be a special conference to appoint the new leader (likely Burnham) on 17 July.  
• New Cabinet – once elected, the new Prime Minister will put in place a new Cabinet. If Burnham is uncontested, this would likely be finalised by the latter weeks of July. It will likely look very different, even if some currently serving and experienced Ministers shift jobs. The positions of stalwarts like Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper will be consequential. Burnham’s focus so far seems very much on domestic issues and reforms, but who will handle foreign policy and defence? 
• Culture Secretary – the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) constitutionally holds the policy brief for civil society, though this portfolio has been diluted and downgraded over recent years. Who will he appoint as Culture Secretary, but also Minister for Civil Society? Will the brief stay in DCMS? Also, will he retain, replace or enhance the Civil Society Covenant? The Greater Manchester ‘Accord’ with the VCFSE sector may provide some clues. 
• Local Government Minister – local government and devolution policy currently sits with the Ministry for Housing Communities and Local Government (MHCLG). If Burnham takes over, this department could change or become more important. Who he appoints as the Minister also could signal a power boost to this policy area, which is consequential for so much of the voluntary sector across the country. 
• Labour Party Conference – after the summer holidays and Parliamentary recess, this will be a big moment for the nation to see what and how things have shifted with the new Prime Minister. It may also signal potentially a renewed momentum and energy going into the parliamentary session in the Autumn. 
• Budget – Burnham has stated that he will stick by the government’s ‘fiscal rules’ but he clearly has big and potentially expensive ambitions for change. Who he picks as Chancellor and how far he or she can stretch those rules will likely be important. The Budget could potentially be earlier than we have had in recent years (usually late October, November), so keep an eye out for the date. 
• King’s Speech? – we only just had the King’s Speech in May, where His Majesty set out the government’s legislative programme for the Parliament. What will happen to the various Bills with a new Prime Minister in place? They could be radically amended, dropped, or new ones could be introduced. If you’re expecting certain legislation to be moving through Parliament, keep a sharp eye out for any changes. 

Conclusion: some risks but also big opportunities 

The coming period will contain risks but also opportunities. There will be some inertia and disruption in the UK national government over the next few months at least, as the transition takes place. Charities that have invested in particular policy agendas or legislation may find themselves scrambling to salvage or embed these before the new leader starts. 

Although the political picture is still evolving, what we know about Andy Burnham so far suggests that there will be significant opportunities for charities to engage and influence the new administration in meaningful ways. And if power does shift away from Westminster as part of a more authentically devolutionary and ‘place-based’ approach, this could dramatically enhance the influence of voluntary organisations in the future.