What local and devolved election results could mean for charities

The recent local and devolved elections may have profound ramifications for the political direction of the UK, and for how charities influence politics and politicians in the coming years. 

In Wales, the Labour Party is out of power for the first time since devolution over a quarter of a century ago. Labour’s seats in the Senedd collapsed, with the nationalist party Plaid Cymru forming the new government. The Reform party is taking over as the official opposition. 

In Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party held on to power despite a series of financial scandals which had, until relatively recently, looked like ending their longstanding rule north of the border.  

Only some local authority areas were having elections in England, but here the Reform party did well, improving from a low base – it now controls 14 councils. The Green Party now controls five and the Liberal Democrats also had a good election, now controlling 15. However, despite losing over 1000 councillors, Labour still control the largest number of councils with 28. 

These results have plunged the Labour Party into a messy leadership challenge to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The Health Secretary Wes Streeting has resigned, and the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, will contest a by election seat to become an MP (and his supporters hope, take over from Starmer). Burnham was previously an MP and held several ministerial roles under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. 

There has been much media hyperventilation about these events signalling ‘the end of the two-party system’. It’s true that the Labour and Conservative parties are extraordinarily unpopular right now and the voters punished both at these elections. But it’s also true that no politician or party is that popular either.   

With all that in mind, here are some things to think about, especially if your charity intends to work with or influence politicians in the coming period: 

1. There are lots of new faces and people with new responsibilities. Parties that have always been in opposition or which didn’t exist until very recently are now charged with governing. This is much harder to do than attacking the party in power or making big promises on the campaign trail. 

For example, in Wales 66 out of 96 Senedd members haven’t been MSs before. In Scotland, around half of the MSPs are new, the highest level since devolution. Reform gained over 1400 councillors at these elections, and now control 14 councils, but they have almost no track record. It’s a steep learning curve. 

Especially for charities in areas where local political control has shifted, it’s worth trying to understand more about the governing party’s campaign pledges and key personnel as they begin to set up their administrations. There’s an opportunity to brief new members of whichever party on the importance of your charity’s work. Right about now, many of them will likely be struck by just how difficult the challenges of governing are and could be looking for constructive solutions. 

2. The unpredictable policy environment presents risks and opportunities. In this political era, making long-term structural change is extremely difficult. People are understandably impatient with the status quo and this impatience is a countervailing force to government doing long-term planning, the benefits of which may not be seen for years to come.  

As a wider group of parties come into the electoral mix, there will be risks but also opportunities. Risks could come from ideas that may have previously  seemed ‘fringe’ becoming mainstream, either because a ‘fringe’ party gains control, or because a ‘fringe’ idea gains popularity and gets taken on by another party that’s in charge.  

Because more parties are having an effect at the ballot box, charities have expanded opportunities to get their ideas into the political bloodstream, but conversely trustees may also need to sharpen up their risk assessments to scan more widely across the political spectrum for potential threats than in the past. 

3. It’s looking like a long uncertain summer for the national picture.  The Prime Minister’s future could be unresolved for months, creating further uncertainty that impacts everything from economic growth, to interest rates, to the fate of the Bills set out in the recent King’s Speech. It’s quite possible that Keir Starmer will hang on, but even in the event of him successfully defending a leadership challenge a different cabinet would likely emerge, particularly if any current Ministers run against him or support challengers to his leadership. 

Equally, there could be a new Labour Party leader and Prime Minister in place relatively soon, ready to seize the initiative and carry out a massive ‘re-set’. In that case, charities should look out for potentially an earlier Budget, or substantial changes to the Bills introduced into Parliament last week. It will be hard to really know which way the wind is blowing until any challengers formally announce themselves and start debating issues in an official contest. 

This will also bring challenges and opportunities. Existing policy work that charities may have invested in which have been backed by Keir Starmer, such as the Civil Society Covenant, could be left to wither. Conversely, depending on the eventual leader, there could be fresh momentum put behind this, or opportunities to thaw frozen discussions and pitch new ideas. 

In this fast-changing environment, it’s important for charities to stay on top of the latest developments. DSC will closely monitor the situation and what it means, to help you stay informed. So stay tuned for the latest news affecting the sector with DSC’s Daily Bulletin.  

You can also get my top tips on how to influence politics and politicians in DSC’s Campaigning Speed Read, here.